Discuss in detail the features underpinning forecasting (Business Cycles)

Discuss in detail the features underpinning forecasting (Business Cycles). Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms

Discuss in detail the features underpinning forecasting (Business Cycles)

INTRODUCTION
Accurate prediction is not possible in Economics. The best the economists can do is to try and forecast what might happen. There are a number of techniques available to help economists to forecast business cycles, e.g. economic indicators 🗸🗸
OR
Successive periods of contraction and expansion of economic activities 🗸🗸
[Accept any other relevant introduction]
[Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART
Business cycle indicators
Leading economic indicators 🗸

• These are indicators that change before the economy changes / coincide with the reference turning point 🗸🗸
• They give consumers, business leaders and policy makers a glimpse (advance warnings) of where the economy might be heading. 🗸🗸
• Peak before a peak in aggregate economic activity is reached.
• Most important type of indicator in helping economists to predict what the economy will be like in the future 🗸🗸
• When these indicators rise, the level of economic activities will also rise in a few months’ time/an upswing 🗸🗸
• E.g. job advertising space/inventory/sales ratio🗸

Coincident economic indicators🗸

• They move at the same time as the economy / if the turning point of a specific time series variable coincides with the reference turning point🗸🗸
• It indicates the actual state of the economy🗸🗸
• E.g. value of retail sales. 🗸
• If the business cycle reaches a peak and then begins to decline, the value of retail sales will reach a peak and then begin to decline at same time🗸🗸

Lagging economic indicators🗸

•  They do not change direction until after the business cycle has changed its direction🗸🗸
• They serve to confirm the behaviour of co-incident indicators🗸🗸
• E.g. the value of wholesalers’ sales of machinery🗸
• If the business cycle reaches a peak and begins to decline, we are able to predict the value of new machinery sold🗸🗸

Composite indicator🗸

• It is a summary of the various indicators of the same type into a single value🗸🗸
• Their values are consolidated into a single value , if this is done we find a value of a composite leading , coincident and lagging indicator🗸🗸
  Accept ONE example from the table below:

 Length 🗸

• This is the time that it takes for a business cycle to move through one complete cycle (measured from peak to peak) 🗸🗸
• It is useful to know the length because the length tends to remain relatively constant over time.🗸🗸
• If a business cycle has the length of 10 years it can be predicted that 10 years will pass between successive peaks or troughs in the economy. 🗸🗸
• Longer cycles show strength. 🗸🗸
• Cycles can overshoot. 🗸🗸

Ways to measure lengths:

• Crisis to crisis 🗸🗸
• Historical records 🗸🗸
• Consensus on businesses experience 🗸🗸

Amplitude 🗸

• It is the difference between the total output between a peak and a trough. 🗸🗸
• It measures the distance of the oscillation of a variable from the trend line / It is the intensity (height) of the upswing and downswing (contraction and expansion) in economic activity 🗸🗸
• A large amplitude during an upswing indicates strong underlying forces – which result in longer cycles 🗸🗸
•  The larger the amplitude the more extreme the changes that may occur / extent of change 🗸🗸
• E.g. During the upswing inflation may increase from 5% to 10%. (100% increase) 🗸🗸

Trend 🗸

•  A trend is the movement of the economy in a general direction. 🗸🗸
• It usually has a positive slope because the production capacity of the economy increases over time 🗸🗸
• Also known as the long term growth potential of the economy. 🗸🗸
• The diagram above illustrates an economy which is growing – thus an upward trend (positive slope) 🗸🗸
• Trends are useful because they indicate the general direction in which the economy is moving – it indicates the rate of increase or decrease in the level of output🗸🗸

Extrapolation 🗸

• Forecasters use past data e.g. trends and by assuming that this trend will continue, they make predictions about the future🗸🗸
• Means to estimate something unknown from facts or information that are known 🗸🗸
• if it becomes clear that the business cycle has passed through a trough and has entered a boom phase, forecasters might predict that the economy will grow in the months that follow 🗸🗸
• It is also used to make economic predictions in other settings e.g. prediction of future share prices🗸🗸

Moving average 🗸

• It is a statistical analytical tool that is used to analyse the changes that occur in a series of data over a certain period of time / repeatedly calculating a series of different average values along a time series to produce a smooth curve 🗸🗸
• The moving average could be calculated for the past three months in order to smooth out any minor fluctuations 🗸🗸
• It is calculated to iron out (minimize) small fluctuations and reveal long-term trends in the business cycle🗸🗸
  Answers must be in full sentences and well described with examples to be able to obtain 2 marks per fact.
  Learners should be awarded 1 mark per 8 headings and examples. [8 x 1=8]
  [Max 26]

BODY: ADDITIONAL PART

• An expansionary monetary policy is implemented when the economy is in recession in order to stimulate economic activities. 🗸🗸
• Interest rates can be reduced to encourage spending. 🗸🗸
• Households and firms can borrow more and spend more. 🗸🗸
•  The increased spending increases the level of economic activity. 🗸🗸
• Investment will increase and more factors of production will be employed. 🗸🗸
• Higher levels of production, income and expenditure will be achieved. 🗸🗸
• If the supply of goods and services does not increase in line with an increase in demand, inflation will increase. 🗸🗸
• Inflation can be curbed by reducing money supply and availability of credit. 🗸🗸
• To dampen demand at the peak the government will be able to reduce the money supply by increasing interest rates. 🗸🗸
• Selling government bonds and securities (open market transactions) and reduce the supply of money in circulation. 🗸🗸
• Increase the cash reserve requirements to manipulate money creation activities of banks. 🗸🗸
• Persuade banks to decrease lending (moral suasion) 🗸🗸
• To devaluate the exchange rate (exchange rate policy) 🗸🗸
  [Max 10]

CONCLUSION
It remain clear that business cycles must be clearly monitored through the indicators available,
policy makers must act quickly by using monetary and fiscal instruments in order to prevent instability in the economy. 🗸🗸
[Accept any other relevant conclusion]
[Max 2]