Discuss in detail the following economic indicators (Economic and Social Performance Indicators)

An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Discuss in detail the following economic indicators (Economic and Social Performance Indicators)

Discuss in detail the following economic indicators (Economic and Social Performance Indicators)

INTRODUCTION
Economic indicators are used to evaluate the economic performance of an economic unit. This unit can be a company, an industry, a country or a region.
Macro-economic indicators, measures the economic performance of a country as a whole. 🗸🗸

BODY-MAIN PART
Such indicators can provide an indication of:

• Changes taking place in a country. 🗸🗸
• How a country compares to other countries. 🗸🗸

Inflation Rate

• This is the general increase in the price level of goods and services in the economy over a certain period in time. E.g. one year. 🗸🗸
• This is therefore an indicator of the health of the economy and it is monitored in two ways that is at the production wholesale level producer price level (PPI) and at the retail or consumer level consumer price index (CPI) 🗸🗸

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Shows the price increases of a representative (weighted) basket of goods and services that consumers buy. 🗸🗸
• It is abbreviated as CPI this cover all the urban areas. 🗸🗸
• It is an overall index and weights are obtained from expenditures of different income categories of households. 🗸🗸
• It is the most comprehensive indicator measuring consumer inflation in the country. 🗸🗸
• It shows changes in the general purchasing power of the rand and it is used for inflation targeting 🗸🗸
• Is compiled by Stats SA and measures the change in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. 🗸🗸
• The goods and services included in the basket are chosen to represent the goods and services purchased by an average household. 🗸🗸
• This basket is adjusted from time to time as consumption patterns change. 🗸🗸
• The inflation rate is the percentage change in the CPI from the previous year and can be calculated as follows:
• Change in CPI x 100 🗸🗸
  CPI

The Production Price Index (PPI)

• Used to measure the price of goods that are produced domestically when they leave the factory year. 🗸🗸
• The goods that are imported when they enter the country (at a port) and both of these are before consumers become involved. 🗸🗸
• PPI consists of three baskets that are domestically manufactured outputs, e.g. changes in the PPI can be made monthly or quarterly or yearly. 🗸🗸
• While changes in the imported products and exported commodities are given separately in the same report. 🗸🗸
• PPI includes capital and intermediate goods but not services. 🗸🗸
• It is based on a completely different type of a basket of items in the CPI. 🗸🗸
• It measures the cost of production rather than the cost of living. 🗸🗸
• It is used to predict consumer goods inflation (CPI) 🗸🗸
• Which is also estimated and published on a monthly basis by Stats SA, is similar to the CPI, 🗸🗸
• Except that it also includes the prices of raw materials and intermediary goods 🗸🗸 (i.e. goods that will be finished in the production process), excludes VAT and excludes  services. 🗸🗸
• Manufactured goods included in the PPI are priced when they leave the factory, not when they are sold to consumers. 🗸🗸
• Unlike the CPI, the PPI therefore cannot be related directly to consumers’ living standards. 🗸🗸
• The PPI is nevertheless very useful in the analysis of inflation because it measures the cost of production. 🗸🗸
• A significant change in the rate of increase in the PPI is usually an indication that the rate of increase in the CPI will also change a few months later. 🗸🗸

The GDP Deflator
Is a ratio that indicates the relationship of the GDP at nominal prices to the GDP at real prices.
GDP deflator = Normal GDP x 100 🗸🗸
Real GDP

Nominal GDP

• Is the value of total gross domestic product measured at current prices. 🗸🗸
• While the real GDP is the value of total gross domestic product measured at constant prices.🗸🗸
• So, the GDP deflator includes changes in the prices of exports but not of imports. 🗸🗸
• In a small open economy, like that of South Africa where both, imports and exports are significant in relation to the total size of the economy. 🗸🗸
• The exclusion of import prices is an important shortcoming. 🗸🗸

Unemployment rate

• In terms of economic development, employment is a very important indicator. 🗸🗸
• Employment is, however, not very easy to measure as so many people are employed in the informal sector which is not recorded. 🗸🗸
• The concept of underemployment is also important. 🗸🗸
• This is when someone is employed in a position that requires less skill than their ability. 🗸🗸
• For example when a qualified accountant works as a delivery person because he or she cannot find employment as an accountant. 🗸🗸
• Someone may also be employed on a part-time basis but would prefer to work full time. 🗸🗸
• A labour force survey is published quarterly by Stats SA. 🗸🗸
• This publication contains information and statistics concerning a variety of issues related to the labour market, including the official unemployment rate. 🗸🗸
• It is a comprehensive survey and provides information on changes in employment in different provinces and industries. 🗸🗸
• Employment in the informal sector, and even reasons for changes in employment figures. 🗸🗸
• The unemployment rate is a percentage of the total labour force. 🗸🗸
• The total labour force includes all employed people and unemployed people who are looking for work. 🗸🗸
• The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, which means that it will only change a few periods after the trend in the economy has changed. 🗸🗸
• For example if the economy starts growing at a faster pace. 🗸🗸
• The unemployment rate will only react to the growth after two or three quarters. 🗸🗸

Interest rates

• Interest rates are important indicators of future economic activity, as the interest rate level is usually an important determinant when economic decisions are being taken. 🗸🗸
• Both the general interest rate level and the structure of interest rates are important indicators.🗸🗸
• There are many interest rates in the economy. 🗸🗸
• Some are short term rates, such as the repo rate, which is the interest rates at which South Africa banks borrow from the Reserve Bank to finance their liquidity deficit. 🗸🗸
• The difference between the short term interest rates and long term interest rates: 🗸🗸
• Is called the interest rate spread and the term structure of interest rates provides an indication of the interest rates levels on loans or investments of different maturities. 🗸🗸
• Usually we can expect the interest rates level in a developing country to be higher than the interest rate in a developed economy. 🗸🗸
• This is due to the higher risk attached to the developing economy. 🗸🗸
• Factors such as political and economic uncertainty cause this higher risk. 🗸🗸
• Developing economies also need to attract foreign investment to their country  to finance growth. 🗸🗸
• Investors’ funds will move towards the highest yield and thereof. 🗸🗸
• Developing countries cannot allow interest rates in their countries to become too low. 🗸🗸

Money Supply

• The increase in the M3 money supply is an important economic indicator. 🗸🗸
• If M, the money supply increases, this means that either (P) prices or Y (output) has to respond to the increase in M. 🗸🗸
• Therefore, an increase in the money supply is an important indicator showing that output will increase. 🗸🗸
• Whether this will translate to an increase in real production or the price level will depend on factors like production within the economy. 🗸🗸

Employment

• In addition to economic growth the employment of people of working age (15 -64 years) is a majot economic objective. 🗸🗸
• We need to know more than this; we need to know who the people are that need to be employed. 🗸🗸
• The numbers are determined, not only by age, but also by people’s willingness to work. 🗸🗸

The Economically Active Population (EAP)

• The EAP is also known as the labour force. 🗸🗸
• It consists of people between the age of 15 and 64 who are willing to work for income in cash or in kind and includes: 🗸🗸
• Workers in the formal sector- workers in the informal sector. 🗸🗸
• Employers any one 🗸🗸
• Self employed persons. 🗸🗸

Unemployed Persons

• The 2021 estimate of the South African population was million people. 🗸🗸
• The EAP numbered million ( % of the population). 🗸🗸

The Employment Rate

• The number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the EAP gives the employment rate. 🗸🗸
• The employment rate can also be converted into an index. 🗸🗸
• The SA employment rate was % in 2011. 🗸🗸
• This is low, compared to rates in developed and even some developing countries such as Argentina and Pakistan. 🗸🗸
•  In SA the growth in the economy is not accompanied by the similar growth in employment numbers. 🗸🗸

Employment indicators are used for:

• To calculate trends in employment in different sectors or industries. 🗸🗸
• This indicates structural changes in the economy. 🗸🗸
• To calculate productivity. 🗸🗸
• To show the success of the economy in utilizing its full potential. 🗸🗸

Unemployment Rate

• Statistics SA (SSA) obtains its labour data each year from Quarterly Labour Surveys  (QLFS). 🗸🗸
• It uses the standard definition of the International Labour Office (ILO) to calculate unemployment. 🗸🗸
• The strict definition of unemployment is used to calculate the unemployment rate. 🗸🗸
• The unemployment rate those people within the economically active population who:
  • Did not work during the seven days prior to the interview. 🗸🗸
  • Want to work and are available to start work within a week of the week of the interview. 🗸🗸
  • Have taken active steps to look for work or to start some form of self-employment in four week prior to the interview. 🗸🗸
• In SA the official unemployment rate was % in 2021. 🗸🗸
• In developed countries, change in the unemployment rate trigger responses. 🗸🗸
• From governments to fine-tune the economy. 🗸🗸
• Increases require more funds for unemployment insurance (UIF) drawings. 🗸🗸
• In developing countries, unemployment is the most important cause of poverty. 🗸🗸
  [Accept current statistical data]
  [Max 16]

ADDITIONAL PART

• To give a policy direction in the country. 🗸🗸
• To develop mechanism to caution the most affected sectors of the economy promptly
• e.g.during the 2019-2020 recession/pandemic some companies required a bail out from the government. 🗸🗸
• Develop some economic stabilisers to defuse the huge impact that may result from the unexpected economic downturn. 🗸🗸
• Open some other alternative markets for their goods and services. 🗸🗸
• To do research and advice the business community before the actual moment hits. 🗸🗸
• It can be used to stimulate thinking and growth in a number of sectors in the Economy. 🗸🗸
  [Accept any relevant consideration]
  [Max 10]

CONCLUSION
Countries cannot survive and grow their economies if they do not pay attention to economic indicators for their planning processes.
[Accept any relevant consideration]
[Max 2]